The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

09 August 2006

I want to believe that Goldmark poll too, but...'s crap. Lake Research operated a quasi push-poll by lacing the questions with negative references to Cathy McMorris' record, and the results that have the candidates in a statistical tie are not reliable. For all the hell raised about the Dave Reichert push-poll, I'm surprised to have not seen similar condemnation for the 5th district one.

I do, however, think the poll served its purpose. The DCCC added the race to its targeted seat list.


At 7:56 AM, Blogger Gerald said...

What evidence to you have that they laced the questions with McMorris' record?

Lake Research, as far as I know, doesn't do push polls. They may have mostly Democratic clients, but it's not fair to say it's a push-poll.

Lake Research also did Darcy Burners Poll (and reported the exact same type of data). Noone questioned the authenticy then.

As far as I know - they do things right (not saying they don't still play with data, like all polls do).

At 8:15 AM, Blogger Gerald said...

Wow, I just looked at Reicharts poll and its extrememly unfair to be comparing the 2.

“If you knew that Darcy Burner had voted in only 11 of 22 elections, would you be more or less likely to vote for her?” (and 4 other q's like this)

Goldmark's poll had none of these 'laced' questions. Look again.

At 2:07 PM, Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...

You seem to have knowledge about the Goldmark poll that enables you to poo-poo it. Can you divulge a little more info to your readers about why you believe what you believe about the poll?

At 8:25 PM, Blogger TMW said...

The SR's political chief has reported that the Lake poll included biased references to the incumbent and her record. Any polling done in this fashion is a push poll and untrustworthy by definition. Unfortunately I have not seen any specifics about the questions, but stand by my comparison that both polls are an unreliable gauge of public support.

I had not meant to compare the content of the polls, but simply the lack of reliability.

At 12:03 AM, Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...

Polls are never reliable.

At 7:07 AM, Blogger TMW said...

Maybe a poor choice of words. :-) I'm a poll slut, I love trying to interpret internals of good pollsters (like SurveyUSA), so there's probably no hope for me.


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