The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

25 July 2006

Cantwell stagnant in SUSA numbers

For the second straight month, Sen. Maria Cantwell has turned in rather poor approval/disapproval numbers in SurveyUSA's monthly national poll. She is virtually unchanged from last month's 48/43 with a 49/43 for this month, placing her in a tie for 83rd most popular senator and for 5th-least popular Senate Democrat.

Looking at demographics it appears she is marginally more popular than Patty Murray amongst Republicans, but 31% of her own party are disapproving versus only 17% for the senior occupant. Both are sorta unpopular with Independents, with both having 51% disapproval. To me, the oddest difference between the two is with the 20% of respondents from Eastern Washington. Those voters approved of Murray more than any other region by a 56/34 margin, while the same group disapproved of Cantwell by a 41/48 margin.

The poll was taken on behalf of KING-5 television.


At 5:08 PM, Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...

What you should keep in mind is that while Democrats may voice their dissapproval of Cantwell in such polls, it is not likely that those that have polled that way will vote for McGavick instead.

In fact, a vast majority of those that are unhappy with Cantwell have indicated that they will probably still vote for her in November because they recognize that the alternative is worse.

What is more newsworthy is the fact tha McGavick's numbers are stagnant. They've varied very little in the past few months. He is stuck at 40%, unable to pick up those that are waffling about Cantwell. That's not a sign of strength.

At 9:55 PM, Blogger TMW said...

I disagree that McGavick's matchup numbers are stagnant. I grant that he is gaining slowly, but virtually all polls (even Elway) have shown Cantwell drop and McGavick gain. Now, he's generally in the low-40s, but if he can get up to around 46% then that's when Cantwell needs to start worrying. You are correct that she probably doesn't need to worry about disaffected Democrats voting for McGavick, but she does have two vocally anti-war candidates to compete with in November and just as she needed Jeff Jared's help to defeat Slade Gorton, McGavick will need the help of Aaron Dixon and Bruce Guthrie to defeat her.

For the record, I still think she will win. However, I'm becoming increasingly less certain of that with each successive poll.

At 9:37 PM, Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...


He's gone from 37% to 40% since November. 46% is miles from where he hovers, and has for the past 9 months, and Cantwell has barely started campaigning.

At 1:03 PM, Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer said...

And now the latest Rasmussen poll has McGavick falling back to 37% while Cantwell increases to 48%.

Back to square one for McGavick.

At 6:02 PM, Blogger TMW said...

Yes, it appears her ad campaign has thus far been a success. He can take solace in partisan polling showing him at 44% and hope this is an outlier, but I would guess he has indeed taken a step backwards.


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