The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

09 August 2006

2006 legislative prediction download

As promised, download links for my legislative predictions are available in the system tray to the right. The files are Microsoft Excel XP, and include candidates who filed for House and Senate races along with personal predictions. I intend to update them periodically as new information is available, generally around mid-month due to PDC finance reporting.


At 1:20 AM, Blogger Gerald said...

Dunn does nothing, it'll be great if he gets booted. (He's also super creepy, but I won't mention why in public).

I project that Tom will win too. He made a good move.

Roach is in a toss-up? That's surprising. She's very partisan and nasty at times - this is good.

Derek Kilmer is the most awesome rep ever, and I'm glad to see his projected win ;). I worked for a rep that was next to his office, and he honestly cares and does his best to represent his district - He's the only rep that actually responds to all his constituents himself, he even calls them.

Good for Ed Murray, he'll be needed.

I really like your projections - I can't disagree with any of your choices (although I really want to in a few cases). The only thing I'd change would be Senate 31 to "GOP lean".

It's too bad the 6th LD races are GOP, but who knows what may happen.

Geez I seem partisan. I just love how well the Democrats are doing in Olympia. =).

At 7:05 AM, Blogger TMW said...

Thanks for the feedback, I actually noticed a few errors in the Senate one after uploading it, one of which was that the Roach race was listed as a toss-up. I initially had close races listed as toss-ups but decided it was a cop-out and changed all to leaners but missed that one. On the next update it will be a GOP lean, though Ward lost by a thin margin in 2002 in a GOP year, so I think she has a decent shot in spite of how ingrained Roach is. I totally agree about Dunn, I would like to see him go without knowing much policy-wise about Burkman. Glad to have found a fellow Tom and Kilmer fan, as well. They're both going to make great moderate senators.

At 6:13 PM, Blogger Island Republican said...


I like your worksheets. It is a good quick summary. You may consider adding a total for each house at the bottom of the worksheets. In addition, you may want to add a short sentence or two on why you are changing your predications.

At 9:40 PM, Blogger TMW said...

Those are good ideas, Island. Thanks for the feedback, and nice to hear from you again.

At 12:43 PM, Blogger Willis said...

Love the work - would be cooler if you were to pick winners in the contested primaries....

Good stuff.

At 12:47 PM, Blogger Willis said...

Oh, and I think Hurst is more Dem Lean than GOP Lean - He's one of the hardest working campaigners out there, and as someone who held that seat before Shabro, he has great name ID and a great profile (recently retired from 25 years on the police force - what more could you ask for?!?)

At 4:23 PM, Blogger TMW said...

The Hurst-Shabro race might be the toughest call there. If Hurst had run against Dan Roach then I would definitely lean it Democratic, but since he chose the more moderate, likable, experienced incumbent I feel it could really go either way. I'm waiting on new C4 reports from the PDC so I can re-evaluate the close ones.

I think I'll take your advice on the primary winners, it would be rather simple to go through and make note of who holds the advantage there.


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