Primary predictions -- City of Seattle

The first installment of personal predictions for this Tuesday's primary election covers the bulk of races discussed on this weblog thus far, featuring the elections for three Seattle City Council races and for the mayor of Seattle. King County and Snohomish County races will be covered Sunday, and the remainder will be covered Monday.

Seattle Mayor
Considering the lack of credible opposition for incumbent Greg Nickels, he is assured to make the general election. The real question here is who he will face, and that could be a difficult question to answer. I like Al Runte here, but Christal Wood could sneak in as well. Jeanne Dixon and Richard Lee are far too eccentric to win, and Luke Williams appears to also have very little chance. I passed by his campaign web log today and found it quite empty and what was written was full of spelling and punctual errors. Chris Hoeppner is openly campaigning as a Socialist Worker, and that isn't a recipe for success anywhere, even Seattle.

Major supporters:
Nickels: Alki Foundation; King County Democrats; County Executive Ron Sims.
Wood: Progressive Party of Washington; Jerome Johnson, former Green Party of Washington secretary; Andy Stephenson, brief Democratic candidate for secretary of state.

Finish order: Nickels, Runte, Wood, Dixon, Williams, Hoppner, Lee.

Seattle City Council Pos. 2
Conventional wisdom would dictate that Darlene Madenwald would wind up the odd woman out in this race. She's a pretty good candidate, but in having to oppose an incumbent and another with tons of election experience and name recognition, Madenwald will have a tough time breaking through to the general election. Once a marked man, incumbent Richard Conlin appears likely to keep his position, and the aforementioned Paige Miller should be able to depend on her long career on the Port Commission to get her to the general.

Major supporters:
Conlin: King County Democrats; Ron Sims; Seattle Post-Intelligencer; former Mayor Charles Royer
Madenwald: Former Gov. Booth Gardner; Lands Commissioner Doug Sutherland; former state SPI Judith Billings; state Rep. Ruth Kagi
Miller: Former Gov. Gary Locke; former Mayors Wes Uhlman and Paul Schell; Seattle Times

Finish order: Conlin, Miller, Madenwald

Seattle City Council Pos. 4
A matchup between incumbent Jan Drago and Casey Corr seems evident here, with footnote candidacies of Linda Averill and Angel Bolaños only opposing them. I expect an entertaining general election here.

Major supporters:
Averill: The Stranger
Bolaños: 46th District Democrats; Joseph Szwaja, former Green Party Congressional candidate; Paul Richmond, 2004 Green Party attorney general candidate; former Democratic state Rep. Dawn Mason
Corr: Former Republican Gov. Dan Evans; Mayor Greg Nickels; Charles Royer; Seattle Times
Drago: King County Democrats; Alki Foundation; Washington Conservation Voters; Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Finish order: Drago, Corr, Bolaños, Averill

Seattle City Council Pos. 8
In what I expect to be the closest race this Tuesday, two of three heavyweight candidates will go on to the general election. Incumbent Richard McIver faces Democratic county Councilman Dwight Pelz and businessman Robert Rosencrantz. Rosencrantz narrowly lost a spot in the general election in his first run for city council when he got beat out by current councilmember Jean Godden in the primary where she defeated then-incumbent Judy Nicastro. This race could go any way, with three well-known and well-financed candidates. Ultimately, my cynicism about elections in Seattle tells me that somebody as likable and mainstream as Rosencrantz is likely to wind up on the losing end, but I hope i'm wrong.

Major supporters:
McIver: Former Democratic Govs. Albert Rosellini and Mike Lowry; Mayors Wes Uhlman, Charles Royer, and Norm Rice
Pelz: Washington Conservation Voters; state Democratic Party Chair Paul Berendt, with former chairs Charles Rolland and Karen Marchioro; state House Speaker Frank Chopp
Rosencrantz: Dan Evans; former Democratic legislator, attorney general and gubernatorial candidate, and state Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge; Alki Foundation; 34th District Democrats

Finish order: McIver, Pelz, Rosencrantz