The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

25 August 2006

Reichert-Burner poll!

Count me amongst the excited. I had been patiently waiting for a reputable Independent pollster to cover the race, and SurveyUSA has released one taken just a few days ago. Dave Reichert is leading -- by a much larger margin than I would have expected, I might add -- by a margin of 54-41. I guess I've been hanging around too many Burner lovefest blogs. The margin of error is +/-4, with 609 respondents. Notable demographics broken down below, click the link for all of them:

-Reichert has a solid lead amongst men, 58-37, and a marginal lead amongst women, 50-44
-Burner leads amongst voters 65 years and older
-On party affiliation Reichert loses only 6% of Republicans vs. Burner losing 14% of Democrats; self-described Independents go for incumbency by a 54-40 margin
-Self-described moderates split 47-47, slightly more liberals supporting Reichert (22%) than conservatives supporting Burner (11%)

Most key of all demographics, I believe, is that Reichert is retaining 27% of voters who disapprove of President Bush's job approval. Depending on point of view, this could either mean that Darcy Burner needs to try harder to tie him to Bush or that people aren't buying it. Considering that the bulk of her campaign has focused on that thus far, I tend to favour that simply not enough voters believe her.


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