Spreadsheet update
A new spreadsheet is now available which reflects all the new filings last week. Rankings have also changed slightly.
Labels: Predictions
posted by TMW @ 5:39 PM
08 June 2008
About Me
- Name: TMW
- Location: Pasco, Washington, United States
I like to think that I'm a rarity in blogging, in that I'm a political nerd who doesn't have a partisan axe to grind in everything they write. I considered myself a Republican up until 2004 when I finally had enough of their bible-based politics, yet still harbour a deep dislike of the Democratic Party because of their ties to labour groups as well as their tendency to bloat budgets. Ideologically I'm somewhere between centrist and libertarian. On economics I fit neatly in the centre-right, while on social issues I can be fairly radical. And no, I'm not British. It's just that I can respect that they created our language and know how to write it properly.
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Previous Posts
- Filing week update
- Filing day #1
- Three credible entries for 14th district seat
- Predictions update
- Haler isn't getting off scot free after all
- Olde tyme legislator to run for OSPI
- Majority supports nonpartisan offices in King County
- 40th District: Today's news
- Lonergan runs with GOP
- Spreadsheet Update
3 Comments:
Still waiting to hear your analysis of the governor taking tribal money.
Fantastic spreadsheet, thanks.
I think you're off a bit on the 18th LD, which I'd put as GOP Safe for both Zarelli and Herrera. There's just no Democratic traction that I'm seeing in this district, even in an apparent Democratic wave year.
The inclusion of Michael Bomar in the 49th against Jim Moeller is news to me, especially a bid as an Independent. Bomar is as Republican establishment as it gets.
I agree completely with your analysis of the 17th's Jim Dunn and how that's ripe for flipping this year.
You're probably correct on the 18th, considering that Zarelli's 2004 margin was artificially-close due to him having a well-funded challenger in Dave Seabrook, and that the 18th hasn't elected a Democrat since the days when it was ruled by Betty Sue Morris. Regarding Herrera, I'm probably keeping her at a lean simply because she's not yet a proven ballot box winner. I suspect the end result will be 10-12 points like it was in Richard Curtis' first win.
The Dunn race could change dramatically under the new primary system, and I'll definitely be looking forward to seeing who will be in the runoff. We all know Dunn is probably going to lose if he makes it, but should the GOP dump him in favour of James it could be a good race. Probst seems like a quality candidate, so he should have a good shot against either of them (just less a sure thing against James).
Interesting tidbit about Bomar, there. I just added him against Moeller because of his candidate filing, but being that I'm not as knowledgeable about southwest WA as King County & eastern WA I can't say I know anything about his backstory in the region. He may be pulling the Curt Fackler trick of running unaffiliated/Independent rather than Republican/GOP.
Thanks for the feedback on the spreadsheet.
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