The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

17 August 2008

Primary predictions: statewide

With only two days left until our first top two primary (suck it, Pelz), I thought it might be worthwhile to come back to the weblog and post some primary predictions. Today will be statewide contests and tomorrow will be legislative contests should I have the opportunity to post. Given the nature of the primary I will be listing which two candidates I think will advance along with their percentage of the vote. I also made note in some races for which candidate I voted for. For races I don't feel particularly solid for either candidate I did not make such a note.

Chris Gregoire [D] 48%
Dino Rossi [R] 45%
-supporting Rossi

Lt Governor:
Brad Owen [D] 55%
Marcia McCraw [R] 29%
-supporting Owen

Secretary of State:
Sam Reed [R] 53%
Jason Osgood [D] 43%
-supporting Reed

Allan Martin [R] 38%
Jim McIntire [D] 33%
-supporting Chang Mook Sohn [D]

Brian Sonntag [D] 59%
Dick McEntee [R] 36%
-supporting Sonntag

Attorney General:
Rob McKenna [R] 54%
John Ladenburg [D] 46%
-supporting McKenna

Lands Commissioner:
Peter Goldmark [D] 52%
Doug Sutherland [R] 48%

Terry Bergeson 38%
Randy Dorn 32%
-supporting Bergeson

Insurance Commissioner:
Mike Kreidler [D] 54%
John Adams [R] 39%

Supreme Court #3:
Mary Fairhurst 57%
Michael Bond 43%

Supreme Court #4:
Charles Johnson 62%
James Beecher 23%
-supporting Johnson



At 2:06 PM, Blogger Ryan said...

I'd flip the Bergeson and Dorn numbers. She didn't fare all that well in the 2004 primary, finishing just ahead of Billings, and I think time has only weakened the brand.

Dorn outpolling Bergeson:

At 2:09 PM, Blogger TMW said...

Yeah, I saw the SurveyUSA poll and realize I'm going out on a bit of a limb on that one. I think Bergeson's name recognition is higher than Dorn's and that will give her an edge, but I'm not nearly as confident on that one as I am on the others.


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