Primary predictions: statewide
With only two days left until our first top two primary (suck it, Pelz), I thought it might be worthwhile to come back to the weblog and post some primary predictions. Today will be statewide contests and tomorrow will be legislative contests should I have the opportunity to post. Given the nature of the primary I will be listing which two candidates I think will advance along with their percentage of the vote. I also made note in some races for which candidate I voted for. For races I don't feel particularly solid for either candidate I did not make such a note.
Governor:
Chris Gregoire [D] 48%
Dino Rossi [R] 45%
-supporting Rossi
Lt Governor:
Brad Owen [D] 55%
Marcia McCraw [R] 29%
-supporting Owen
Secretary of State:
Sam Reed [R] 53%
Jason Osgood [D] 43%
-supporting Reed
Treasurer:
Allan Martin [R] 38%
Jim McIntire [D] 33%
-supporting Chang Mook Sohn [D]
Auditor:
Brian Sonntag [D] 59%
Dick McEntee [R] 36%
-supporting Sonntag
Attorney General:
Rob McKenna [R] 54%
John Ladenburg [D] 46%
-supporting McKenna
Lands Commissioner:
Peter Goldmark [D] 52%
Doug Sutherland [R] 48%
OSPI:
Terry Bergeson 38%
Randy Dorn 32%
-supporting Bergeson
Insurance Commissioner:
Mike Kreidler [D] 54%
John Adams [R] 39%
Supreme Court #3:
Mary Fairhurst 57%
Michael Bond 43%
Supreme Court #4:
Charles Johnson 62%
James Beecher 23%
-supporting Johnson
Labels: Predictions
2 Comments:
I'd flip the Bergeson and Dorn numbers. She didn't fare all that well in the 2004 primary, finishing just ahead of Billings, and I think time has only weakened the brand.
Dorn outpolling Bergeson:
http://wateachers.blogspot.com/2008/08/dorn-outpolling-bergeson.html
Yeah, I saw the SurveyUSA poll and realize I'm going out on a bit of a limb on that one. I think Bergeson's name recognition is higher than Dorn's and that will give her an edge, but I'm not nearly as confident on that one as I am on the others.
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