The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

18 September 2005

Primary predictions -- counties

Today i'll cover races in King and Snohomish counties, mostly council races, but some others as well.

King County Executive
Incumbent Democrat Ron Sims faces a challenge from Karen Rispoli and Michael Nelson. Neither pose a serious threat to his nomination. Republican David Irons faces no primary opposition and Green Gentry Lange does not run in the primary due to the Green Party's lack of major party status. Sims is supported by nearly every major Democrat in King County. Bob Ferguson did not endorse him, but has not endorsed anybody else.

Finish order: Sims, Nelson, Rispoli.

King County Council Dist. 1
While the aforementioned Bob Ferguson suffered a surprising setback this morning with the normally-normal Seattle Times endorsing Carolyn Edmonds, he still has the momentum and support to win. An Edmonds victory would be a surprising upset, despite that the district encompasses more of her old district than Ferguson's, but considering that Ferguson near unanimously won the endorsement of the Democratic district Edmonds formerly represented, this ought not be a big issue. The winner will face token opposition from Republican Steven Pyeatt, who has no primary opponent.

Major supporters:
Edmonds: Washington Conservation Voters; Sen. Patty Murray; County Executive Ron Sims; Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels
Ferguson: King County and Washington State Democrats; Democratic County Councilwoman Julia Patterson; Rep. Adam Smith; former Democratic legislator and state Supreme Court Justice Phil Talmadge

Finish order: Ferguson, Edmonds

King County Council Dist. 9
I am of the opinion that Steve Hammond's win at the county convention was a fluke, and that Reagan Dunn will probably win this rather handily. Dunn has the name recognition, cash, and geography on his side here, and I doubt Hammond will be able to pull it off.

Major supporters:
Dunn: Former Republican Sen. Slade Gorton; former Republican Rep. Jennifer Dunn; current and former Secs. of State Sam Reed and Ralph Munro; Seattle Times
Hammond: Republican state Sen. Steve Johnson; King County Republicans; KVI talk show host Kirby Wilbur

Finish order: Dunn, Hammond

King County Sheriff
Appointed incumbent Sue Rahr's only major opponent seems to be Jim Fuda, and Fuda will probably beat Greg Schmidt rather handily for the second spot in the general election.

Major supporters:
Fuda: King County Police Officers Guild; Bellevue City Councilman John Chelminiak
Rahr: Alki Foundation; Republican Rep. Dave Reichert; King County Prosecuting Attorney Norm Maleng; and, yes, both Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi
Schmidt: 11th District Republicans; 32nd, 34th, 36th, 47th District Democrats

Snohomish County Council Dist. 1
Incumbent Republican John Koster is unopposed, and will face either Marian Harrison or Suzanne Smith on the Democratic ticket. Smith has the edge in experience from her years on the Marysville City Council, and has a slight edge in cash over Harrison (neither have particularly spectacular fundraising figures). That said, Harrison did earn the endorsement of the Snohomish County Democrats.

Finish order: Smith, Harrison

Snohomish County Council Dist. 5
The clear advantage here goes to former Councilman Dave Somers, who current incumbent Jeff Sax beat in 2001. Steve Hobbs is a more mainstream choice for Democrats but has little chance of beating Somers, who has most of the Democratic establishment behind him and an advantage in cash. A Sax-Somers rematch should be entertaining.

Major supporters:
Hobbs: Democratic County Executive Aaron Reardon; Snohomish Mayor Liz Loomis
Somers: Snohomish County Democrats; Washington Conservation Voters; Democratic Reps. Jay Inslee and Rick Larsen

Finish order: Somers, Hobbs


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