Profile: 47th Senate, Democrats

While either Claudia Kauffman or Ed Crawford will probably be favoured in the general election, whomever is eventually nominated will determine how easy and expensive the seat will be. This swing district would likely be more friendly to Crawford, whom is apparently the choice of the mainstream of the party, as evidenced by his endorsement by the 47th district Democrats and many in-party leaders. By contrast, Kauffman has seemed to round up some of the party's left-wing pols and not as many organizations, though at last check she still had a money lead (likely because she was in the race much earlier).

Predicting a winner is difficult due to opposing advantages splitting the candidates down the middle. Crawford has the local support, Kauffman has the cash advantage, and while cash is usually the bigger factor, my gut says Crawford wins. However, the Seattle Times' late endorsement of Kauffman may well throw a wrench in my prediction. Still, a moderate Democrat like Crawford in the general election against the poorly-financed Mike Riley should just about lock this one up.

Prediction: Crawford Lean