The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

31 October 2006

Constituent Dynamics polls the 5th and 8th

While the findings hold good news for Democrats, I am personally beginning to doubt the validity of these Constituent Dynamics polls. The big flag for me was that the regional breakdown of the 8th district race had Bellevue moving from a tie to a Darcy Burner lead of 12 points, coupled with a slight Dave Reichert lead in rural Pierce moving to a 21-point lead. These are a bit volatile for my tastes, but people should judge for themselves. At the very least, I'm happy to see somebody poll the 5th. The raw numbers:

5th CD
McMorris [R] 51
Goldmark [D] 46

8th CD
Burner [D] 49
Reichert [R] 47

A surprising result in the 5th is that Goldmark performs better in the rural counties than in Spokane County, which contains the district's sole significant Democratic bastion. Perhaps if he can make a play for rural votes he could win coupled with a slight victory in Spokane County. Looking back at 1994, Tom Foley won Spokane by a slight margin but George Nethercutt won the rural areas by a large enough margin to offset it.

Elsewhere, SurveyUSA has released polls for the Senate race, the Supreme Court race, and our initiatives. Its findings:

Cantwell [D] 54
McGavick [R] 41
Guthrie [L] 2
Dixon [G] 1
Adair [I] 1

Supreme Court
Owens 36
Johnson 31

No 51
Yes 40

No 45
Yes 41


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