The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

03 October 2006

Spreadsheet update

Legislative prediction spreadsheets are now updated for the general election. Predictions were mostly unchanged, save for the 17th surprise, but I intend to take a deeper look at each of the races (especially in regard to campaign finances) in a mid-to-late October update. Whether that will be the final update or not, I'm not yet sure. New in this update is a numerical ranking of contests in likelihood to change hands, a top 10 listing in the Senate and a top 25 listing in the House. Seats marked in the Chg field are obviously at the top ranks of each list. I think this feature will be helpful because readers can easily sort the spreadsheet by the Rank column in ascending order to see a list of the most hotly-contested seats. For those who are too lazy to download, Democrat Derek Kilmer was ranked #1 of Senate races for his fine campaign in the open 26th, and fellow Democrat Kevin Van de Wege was ranked #1 in House races for his rematch with Jim Buck in the 24th.


At 1:28 PM, Blogger Trent England said...

Interesting to note that both Van de Wege and Kilmer are both IDF alumni from 2002 (
IDF does an outstanding job of training far-left democrats on how to talk like moderates in order to get elected. I've actually met voters in the 26th who believe Kilmer is pro-life and pro-marriage (no and no).

At 10:12 AM, Blogger TMW said...

I don't think Van de Wege is moderate, and in his district he really doesn't have to be. It helps to be one like Kessler and Hargrove, but against a conservative Republican in a Democratic-leaning district, he can win a close race by being a straight liberal. As for Kilmer, he is "pro-marriage," yet for a fair definition of it. I had never heard anyone think he was a social moderate, though I will take your word for it that those folks exist. Kilmer's moderation stems from fiscal issues, where he is one of the most business-friendly in the Democratic Caucus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see AWB at least issue a co-endorsement of his candidacy for the 26th Senate district.


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