Spreadsheet update
Legislative prediction spreadsheets are now updated for the general election. Predictions were mostly unchanged, save for the 17th surprise, but I intend to take a deeper look at each of the races (especially in regard to campaign finances) in a mid-to-late October update. Whether that will be the final update or not, I'm not yet sure. New in this update is a numerical ranking of contests in likelihood to change hands, a top 10 listing in the Senate and a top 25 listing in the House. Seats marked in the Chg field are obviously at the top ranks of each list. I think this feature will be helpful because readers can easily sort the spreadsheet by the Rank column in ascending order to see a list of the most hotly-contested seats. For those who are too lazy to download, Democrat Derek Kilmer was ranked #1 of Senate races for his fine campaign in the open 26th, and fellow Democrat Kevin Van de Wege was ranked #1 in House races for his rematch with Jim Buck in the 24th.
posted by TMW @ 9:28 AM
2 Comments:
Interesting to note that both Van de Wege and Kilmer are both IDF alumni from 2002 (http://www.democraticfuture.org/alumni.html).
IDF does an outstanding job of training far-left democrats on how to talk like moderates in order to get elected. I've actually met voters in the 26th who believe Kilmer is pro-life and pro-marriage (no and no).
I don't think Van de Wege is moderate, and in his district he really doesn't have to be. It helps to be one like Kessler and Hargrove, but against a conservative Republican in a Democratic-leaning district, he can win a close race by being a straight liberal. As for Kilmer, he is "pro-marriage," yet for a fair definition of it. I had never heard anyone think he was a social moderate, though I will take your word for it that those folks exist. Kilmer's moderation stems from fiscal issues, where he is one of the most business-friendly in the Democratic Caucus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see AWB at least issue a co-endorsement of his candidacy for the 26th Senate district.
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