The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

06 November 2006

House election prediction

In the final coverage I intend to do until votes begin to be counted, the following is my predictions and commentary on what I believe to be our twenty most closely-contested state House races. These are more difficult to call than the Senate predictions, as a result of more contests and generally less coverage in the mainstream media. However, I gave it my best shot, and as always, feedback is welcome and appreciated. Unfortunately, due to time constraints I won't have time to write a paragraph for each race or upload pictures. I need to get some sleep before waking up to watch returns tonight.

1. 24th District:
Kevin Van De Wege [D] 53%
Jim Buck [R] 47%

2. 23rd District:
Christine Rolfes [D] 51%
Beverly Woods [R] 49%

3. 28th District #2:
Tami Green [D] 51%
Bob Lawrence [R] 49%

4. 31st District #2:
Jan Shabro [R] 51%
Christopher Hurst [D] 49%

5. 26th District #1:
Pat Lantz [D] 53%
Beckie Krantz [R] 47%

6. 45th District #1:
Jeff Possinger [R] 53%
Roger Goodman [D] 47%

7. 17th District #1:
Jim Dunn [R] 54%
Pat Campbell [D] 46%

8. 14th District:
Charles Ross [R] 54%
Ron Bonlender [D] 46%

9. 48th District:
Deb Eddy [D] 54%
Bret Olson [R] 46%

10. 35th District:
Bill Eickmeyer [D] 54%
Randy Neatherlin [R] 46%

11. 45th District #2:
Larry Springer [D] 55%
Tim Lee [R] 45%

12. 17th District #2:
Deb Wallace [D] 55%
Paul Harris [R] 45%

13. 28th District #1:
Don Anderson [R] 55%
Troy Kelley [D] 45%

14. 6th District:
Jon Serben [R] 56%
Don Barlow [D] 44%

15. 26th District #2:
Larry Seaquist [D] 56%
Ron Boehme [R] 44%

16. 42nd District:
Doug Ericksen [R] 56%
Jasper Macslarrow [D] 44%

17. 31st District #1:
Dan Roach [R] 57%
Karen Willard [D] 43%

18. 47th District #2:
Pat Sullivan [D] 57%
Andrew Franz [R] 43%

19. 47th District #1:
Geoff Simpson [D] 58%
Donna Watts [R] 42%

20. 38th District:
John McCoy [D] 59%
Kim Halvorson [R] 41%

Again, I apologize for being unable to explain how I came to these conclusions at this time. Considering that many of these races are localized, I think any of the predicted losers of these 20 races could feasibly win in the end, if the ball bounces correctly for their campaign.


At 11:57 AM, Anonymous paco and taco said...

Please check 47th district, position 2 = his name is Sullivan, not Campbell...

At 12:00 PM, Blogger TMW said...

Whoops, a bit of repetition from the 17th district. Thanks for catching that.


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