The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

18 August 2008

Primary predictions: legislative

Here are my predictions for several hand-picked races from across the state that are being effected by the new primary system. These are mostly open seats with lots of candidates, but there are some exceptions. While I've not spent a lot of time examining our federal races aside from looking at polls as they come out, I'm including a brief write-up about the Reichert-Burner race at the bottom just because it's probably the second most important race in the state this cycle.

11th Senate District:
Margarita Prentice [D] 65%
Juan Martinez [D] 27%

20th Senate District:
Dan Swecker [R] 45%
Chuck Bojarski [D] 35%

40th Senate District:
Steve Van Luven [R] 30%
Kevin Ranker [D] 24%
Ranker should come out as the highest Democrat due to his organizational edge, though Ken Henderson will keep it close. Van Luven should win as the only Republican.

3rd House District #1:
Alex Wood [D] 55%
John Waite [I] 19%
-supporting Waite
I like Waite a lot, and think he might be able to overcome his lack of partisan help for a place in the runoff. He's a moderate in a liberal district and against two Republicans could end up beating them out for a place in the runoff. His endorsement by the Spokesman Review should help out quite a bit.

4th House District #2:
Diana Wilhite [R] 32%
Tim Hattenburg [D] 29%

6th House District #1:
Don Barlow [D] 47%
Kevin Parker [R] 31%

7th House District #1:
Shelly Short [R] 38%
Sue Lani Madsen [R] 33%

8th House District #1:
Carol Moser [D] 35%
Rick Jansons [R] 28%

14th House District #1:
Vickie Ybarra [D] 33%
Norm Johnson [R] 30%

17th House District #1:
Tim Probst [D] 45%
Joseph James [R] 31%

35th House District #2:
Fred Finn [D] 34%
Randy Neatherlin [R] 26%

36th House District #1:
Reuven Carlyle [D] 44%
John Burbank [D] 35%
-supporting Carlyle, Leslie Bloss [R]

8th Congressional District:
Dave Reichert [R] 51%
Darcy Burner [D] 44%
Burner will almost assuredly come in second in the primary due to the other two Democratic candidates in the race but ultimately I doubt either will lose much to the also-rans. I'll probably catch some hell about this from all the Burner cheerleaders, but I'm keeping my Reichert prediction from last cycle and barring some major event between now and November will also be predicting him in the runoff. He's led in every nonpartisan poll I've seen of the race and while he's always hovering around 50% I expect his personal vote to come out in enough force to allow him another slight victory. We all know the 8th district likes to ticket-split and I don't see any signs this vocal minority is going to succumb to straight-ticket voting this year even with Barack Obama dominating the district. Burner's money and grassroots support are strong but as a second-try candidate has a lot to overcome. Dino Rossi will be in a similar situation and while I'd love to think otherwise he will also probably lose a close race.



At 3:25 PM, Blogger Aneurin said...

That's a pretty solid take on the 17th LD race. I can definitely see the Republicans splitting 55% of the vote between James and Dunn.

The 17th has oftentimes surprised all of us in the past through, with Dunn's sheer force of Name ID being the difference.

At 6:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What do you base the 35th district numbers on?

At 1:57 AM, Blogger TMW said...

Aneurin, I think James has the momentum there on the GOP side but agree that Dunn's name recognition is keeping him in the game. Ultimately I expect them to make the smart choice, lest they give the Democratic Party a pick-up on a silver platter.

As for my reasoning in the 35th, I'm quite confident with my Finn prediction as #1 because he seems to have more establishment support than Daugs and certainly has the inside track in the fundraising game. I suspect he will earn a big enough share of the Democratic vote to keep it from an all-Democrat runoff, though that's not set in stone for sure. For the GOP side, I had kept my eye on Herb Baze from the start to see how he did, being a former county commissioner and all, but having not heard much out of him since coupled with his meager fundraising, I decided to give the edge to Neatherlin. I suspect he will have higher name recognition than Baze from his run two years ago as well as his own county commissioner run prior to that. Neatherlin's fundraising hasn't been much better than Baze's, so I didn't really make much of a distinction there. Hope that helps shed some light on that, Anon.

At 12:42 PM, Anonymous Paul Warfield said...

Pretty solid looking projections. I know all of us political nerds are waiting with baited breath to see how this whole thing shakes out... it's always fun to observe new systems, regardless of if you like it or not.

At 6:35 PM, Blogger Ryan said...

I think your number for Barlow in the 6th is too high. It's the Mel v. Kevin race on the R side that has gotten the most attention, and I think that'll turn out the R base quite a bit.

Barlow 35
Parker 30
Lindauer 27

The Short/Madsen race is fascinating, if only to see how Short's numbers do after the recent bad press re: her husband.


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