The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

19 August 2008

Primary recap

Not all the runoff pictures are set in stone yet, but from what we know now I'm quite satisfied with my predictions. For statewide races I called them all pretty close, with the only real disappointment being Chang Mook Sohn's poor result in the treasurer's race. As of this posting, Doug Sutherland narrowly leads the lands commissioner race 51-49, not far off of the 52-48 call I made going in favour of opponent Peter Goldmark. Other surprises of the night include the apparent dominance of Sam Reed, Rob McKenna, and Terry Bergeson, all currently winning by greater than expected margins. Especially in the case of Reed, whose surprising 54-40 win in King County is easily the best for a Republican there in several cycles.

On the legislative front, there were a few hiccups. First, my John Waite gamble didn't pay off, though it is a pretty tight race between him and the two Republicans for the 3rd district House seat held by Alex Wood. Diana Wilhite really underperformed in the 4th, which has been the biggest surprise of the night for me. As the mayor of Spokane Valley, I would have expected a much stronger result than 20%. I knew Matt Shea was a strong candidate, but apparently underestimated the name recognition factor in that race.

In the 8th House district Carol Moser easily won as the only Democrat, but it remains to be seen who her GOP challenger will be. At the moment the leader for that spot is Brad Klippert, an extreme conservative who makes Val Stevens look cuddly and reasonable, with moderately-conservative businessman Skip Novakovich a little under 300 votes behind. The other tight race out east is the 7th district, where Sue Lani Madsen currently leads Shelley Short by about 50 votes.

On the west side, John Burbank seems to have won the first round in the race to replace Helen Sommers, though I still think Reuven Carlyle is the man to beat in that match. Scott White ran rather easily ahead of Gerry Pollet for all of the drama surrounding that race. In the 28th district Senate race, which was a foregone conclusion as it only has two candidates, is amusingly tight as incumbent Mike Carrell is now tied with Debi Srail with 5,790 votes. The open 25th seat was assumed to advance Democrat Rob Cerqui with GOP moneymaker Bruce Dammeier, which is the case but it remains to be seen which candidate will have bragging rights going into the runoff. Cerqui has held a small lead most of the night but at the current time is a mere 25 votes.



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