House elections predictions, part 2

Now for the Republican targets. The GOP has several more opportunities than Democrats this year due to the aforementioned lack of fertile ground that comes with having supermajorities. If memory serves me right, this would be the first cycle since 2002 that legislative Republicans picked up a Democratic-held seat, but considering where they're at it's not a whole lot to build on. At least in one circumstance it will give the GOP a surburban Puget Sound seat back in their column, but it's going to take a lot of work and big Democratic blunders for them to have a truly "good" election. At least if Gregoire is able to eke out a narrow win she might actually have to take responsibility for this shitty budget situation now that she won't be able to blame it on a Republican president. But let's save that for later and focus on these GOP targets.

Republican Targets:
1. 26th District - seat gain
When Pat Lantz announced her retirement and outgoing Kitsap County Commissioner Jan Angel stepped into the race, I immediately speculated it as a GOP gain. She drew a quality challenger in ex-Port Orchard Mayor Kim Abel, but won the primary by a comfortable eight points. It's safe to say that both candidates have name recognition but it appears that Angel's is doing more for her, as she won both the Kitsap and Pierce County parts of the district by about the same margin. This might tighten up a little but I have a hard time seeing the lead change hands so dramatically.

Angel [R] 53
Abel [D] 47

2. 6th District - seat gain
Just as the GOP-held seat in the 6th is targeted by Democrats the opposite is true for freshman Rep. Don Barlow. Barlow narrowly got into the legislature as Chris Marr was easily winning the district's Senate seat in 2006, but faces a strong challenge in Republican businessman Kevin Parker. Barlow faced two Republicans in the primary and drew 45% of the vote, and while the matchup between Parker and Mel Lindauer was a little nasty at times I'd suspect Parker would be the easy beneficiary of those Lindauer voters. This isn't a situation like what's going on in the 8th where the most unsavoury primary candidate made the runoff and is likely to result in a decent amount of crossovers. Although it's currently 2D-1R the 6th is still fundamentally a Republican district and Barlow isn't likely to make it on his own.

Parker [R] 52
Barlow [D] 48

3. 45th District
I think this may well be the closest race of the cycle. Incumbent Democrat Roger Goodman won the primary by a couple hundred votes over former Rep. Toby Nixon, who vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for the district's Senate seat in 2006. Nixon is a more tolerant and libertarian Republican and has a sizable personal vote, while Goodman hasn't really done much to make a name for himself in his first term. Still, this is the suddenly Democratic-leaning Eastside in a year where Barack Obama will be sweeping through the region at the top of the ticket. I think Nixon puts in a valiant effort only to come up a little short. I don't believe in going into decimals except for extreme circumstances (governor's race, anyone?), but I wouldn't be surprised to see this end up within a single point.

Goodman [D] 51
Nixon [R] 49

4. 44th District #2
Another tight one on primary night, the 44th race features appointed Rep. Liz Loomis against GOP challenger Mike Hope. Hope has run in the district a lot and done better than comparable Republicans there, but this is the first time he really seems to be on the cusp of a victory. He took a little over 49% in the primary, but I can't quite see him overturning the recent past in the 44th and edging out Loomis here. The 44th lost its only Republican member when Senator Dave Schmidt lost reelection in 2006, and the last time another Republican won there was 1998. This probably isn't the year to revert that trend.

Loomis [D] 52
Hope [R] 48

5. 47th District
This one is a little unique. It probably wouldn't be on the map if not for Geoff Simpson's domestic dispute charges, and while they were dropped, it probably did enough damage that he's not going to have another easy election in his career. The 47th has preferred the Democratic label like all the other suburban crescent districts as of late, but it isn't a particularly liberal district still and Simpson has always had a voting record as if he were representing Wallingford rather than Kent. GOP candidate Mark Hargrove won the primary with close to 47% while Simpson and fellow Democrat Leslie Kae Hamada split the rest. That isn't a whole lot for Hargrove to make up but I still have a hard time seeing him winning even with all of Simpson's problems. Democrats are clearly worried about this seat as they recently pulled a ridiculous stunt in accusing Hargrove of being soft on sex offenders because one donated to his campaign. I don't think they're doing Simpson any favours.

Simpson [D] 52
Hargrove [R] 48

6. 35th District
With Bill Eickmeyer's retirement the GOP has a rare opportunity for a pickup in a solidly-Democratic western Washington district. The primary pitted two Democrats against two Republicans, with the combined Democratic vote at 51%. The two who emerged from the pack are Fred Finn, Eickmeyer's handpicked would-be successor, and GOP challenger Randy Neatherlin, who ran for the seat in 2006 and previously sought a Mason County Commission seat. While Eickmeyer beat Neatherlin by an easy 20 points in 2006 this looks to be quite a bit closer, and Neatherlin is likely to benefit from Dino Rossi's presence on the ballot as Mason is a key swing county in which he is popular. That said, this is a fundamentally Democratic district and if Republicans had an easy time winning here Tim Sheldon would have probably switched long ago.

Finn [D] 53
Neatherlin [R] 47

7. 31st District
As we all know, 2006 was a year where Democrats swept the suburbs. They also infiltrated the exurb/rural 31st when Chris Hurst returned to the House by defeating Jan Shabro, the sole sane member of the district's GOP delegation. Hurst is now defending that seat against Sharon Hanek, who narrowly beat out fellow Republican Josh Hulburt for the second spot in the general election runoff. Hurst took 57% in the primary and if he could beat an entrenched incumbent attractive to crossover voters he should have similar fortunes in the runoff.

Hurst [D] 55
Hanek [R] 45

8. 28th District #1
Troy Kelley surprised a few people by winning this seat in 2006 after Gigi Talcott retired, and has since been by far the most independent-minded Democrat in the House in my opinion. He's been everything I look for in a moderate Democrat: willing to break ranks to support business interests and fiscal responsibility but doesn't waffle when it comes to social issues. Seatmate Tami Green has cast several anti-gay votes in her career, seemingly in hopes of appearing moderate and acceptable to GOP voters, but Kelley has stood up for basic fairness and staked a more conservative streak on issues that matter in the district, not trying to make personal gains on the backs of a minority group. Easily my favourite new face in the legislature, and I hope to see him go far. Swing voters seem to agree as he took 57% in the primary, giving him a 15-point margin of victory over Dave Dooley. This is quite a gain considering he only won by three points for his first term.

Kelley [D] 56
Dooley [R] 44

9. 28th District #2
Speaking of Tami Green, she was looking to have an easy ride for a third term this year when nobody filed against her, but will have to face Republican Denise McCluskey after the latter took a solid 5% of the primary vote via write-ins. Green should still have a solid advantage as an incumbent against a late-starting opponent, though. The 28th has gone from a GOP-leaner to something between a straight-up swing district and a slightly Democratic-leaner in two cycles, and with both Democratic reps looking to have an easier time this cycle than GOP Senator Carrell the district appears to continue to move in that direction. It's hard to gauge how McCluskey will do since she wasn't on the primary ballot, but I expect Green should have about as easy a time winning as her seatmate but with a little extra breathing room due to longer incumbency and McCluskey's late start.

Green [D] 57
McCluskey [R] 43

10. 44th District #1
It used to be that Hans Dunshee was a perennial target as he's an unabashed liberal in what was once a swing district, but now that the region has tilted Democratic he's enjoyed increasingly large margins of victory. He has an added bonus this cycle with Republicans focusing on appointed Rep. Loomis in the other seat rather than his own. Facing him is Larry Countryman, formerly of the Snohomish City Council. Dunshee won the primary by about 15 points, an increase over his 11-point victory over Mike Hope in 2006.

Dunshee [D] 57
Countryman [R] 43

House elections predictions, part 1

Now for the House. This is where I expect there to be some shifts, though they should be minimal. Fact is, Democrats have virtually maxed-out their pickup opportunities by now that they can only target a couple seats and will have to play defense on the rest. Fortunately for them, the GOP is still not doing a very good job at targeting legislative seats, though they do have several solid candidates going this cycle. I'm predicting both sides pick up two seats, resulting in no change in membership. It's worth noting, though, that one of those Democratic pickups is Fred Jarrett's seat, which is now Democratic but I count as a pickup as it went Republican last cycle. Because of this, the seat distribution ought to be 62 Democratic vs. 36 Republican.

Democratic Targets:
1. 41st District - seat gain
The aforementioned Jarrett seat has been Democratic since he switched parties mid-term. I cast no ill judgment on Jarrett for that and hope he wins the district's Senate seat, but I am definitely hoping the GOP can hold on to his old House seat agaisnt all odds. Their candidate is Steve Litzow, a socially centre-left Mercer Island city councilman, the exact kind of candidate that used to clean up huge numbers in the 41st before it went so knee-jerk Democratic. I see Litzow as an ideological soulmate of Jarrett, the type of Republican that 41st voters need not be fearful they will vote to repeal gay rights legislation nor to jack up restrictions on abortion rights. Opposing Litzow is Democrat Marcie Maxwell, a Renton School Board member. No disrespect to Maxwell, but I see her as not much more than an acceptable, generic Democrat. Litzow is the interesting candidate in the race, but he's still fighting uphill in this district. Maxwell won the primary count by about 53-47, and I'm expecting a similar general election finish.

Maxwell [D] 54
Litzow [R] 46

2. 8th District - seat gain
This one is my upset special. The 8th has been monolithically-Republican since the 1994 elections, but they're making things hard on themselves here this cycle. Their candidate is Brad Klippert, a man anyone who follows elections in this state should know is an ultra right-wing fundamentalist nutjob from his two failed US Senate runs. Klippert should be naught but a fringe candidate with no chance but in a solid GOP district he actually stands a good chance of winning in spite of his out-of-mainstream social views. Klippert emerged from the primary with a paltry 19% in a five man race with four Republican candidates. A crowded primary is perfect for a candidate like him, where all you need to do is get your nutty base out and it's enough to earn a runoff spot. I see the 8th district (greater Richland and Kennewick area) as much more pocketbook Republicans than Leviticus Republicans, and have faith that enough of them will see Klippert for what he is instead of just checking off every candidate with an R. Democrats are running Carol Moser, a member of the state Transportation Commission and formerly a city councilmember in Richland. She took 38% in the primary but it's going to be damn difficult to get the rest of the way. Here's hoping.

Moser [D] 51
Klippert [R] 49

3. 5th District #2
One of the surprises on primary night for me was how close this district was, where Democrat David Spring, an educator, finished a mere two points behind incumbent Glenn Anderson. Anderson has been in office since first being elected in 2000, typically winning by ten points when Democrats bother to offer any opponent at all. I like to think he was as surprised as I was at Spring's performance. Long story short, this is Dino Rossi's home district and as a result of that I think GOP turnout will be strong. Spring puts in a valiant effort but comes up a little short in the end.

Anderson [R] 52
Spring [D] 48

4. 6th District
I suppose the 6th would have been similarly surprising as the 5th was on primary night were this not such a long time coming. I've made several posts on this weblog in the past about John Ahern's nuttiness, and it's high time he saw a good challenger in his suburban Spokane district. Ahern consistently rates among the most conservative members of the legislature, despite that the 6th has long been more of a moderate Republican district, even before it finally elected a Democrat in 2006. Opposing Ahern is John Driscoll, director of a universal health care advocacy group. Sounds a little liberal for Spokane, but he came fairly close in the primary with his 48% finish. Ahern probably wins, and I probably wouldn't care much for Driscoll if he were to pull off an upset, but this is one where I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Ahern [R] 53
Driscoll [D] 47

5. 39th District #1
Democrats came surprisingly close here in 2006, actually leading at times on election night, only to lose by eight points when absentees were tallied. Incumbent GOPer Dan Kristiansen is awfully conservative, but lacks the nastiness embodied by Val Stevens, so I tend to think he's pretty secure in that seat. He faces a rematch from 2006 in Scott Olson, but I'm thinking it'll be a little wider gap now that Kristiansen is more prepared.

Kristiansen [R] 56
Olson [D] 44

6. 31st District
Republican incumbent Dan Roach faces Ron Weigelt, a Buckley city councilman, in this race. Roach ran pretty easily ahead of Weigelt in the primary and I don't see much reason to think he's going to lose despite the close call he had in 2006. I'm still peeved that Chris Hurst targeted the district's moderate for his 2006 victory rather than taking out Roach instead. Sigh.

Roach [R] 57
Weigelt [D] 43

7. 39th District #2
Similar story to Kristiansen's here. Kirk Pearson is a staunchly conservative Republican in a Republican district that isn't likely to throw him out, but there's still a solid Democratic base of about 40% or so in the district. His opponent is David Personius, whom he ran far ahead of in the primary. A third candidate's 11% is up for grabs, but when Pearson took 57%, things don't look very good for the 39th district Democrats.

Pearson [R] 58
Personius [D] 42

8. 30th District
As far as I can see, Democrats are content with having Skip Priest in the legislature. He's a moderate, green-friendly, bipartisan guy who has a record of willingness to work with Democrats as he would with Republicans. The 30th is a Democratic-leaning swing district but Priest has enough personal votes that I don't ever think he's terribly endangered, at least ever since he doubled his previous margin of victory in 2006 while Republicans all across the suburban crescent were falling. His opponent is Carol Gregory, a retired educator.

Priest [R] 58
Gregory [D] 42

9. 42nd District
A similar story electorally to Priest's, Doug Ericksen seems to have achieved that level of a personal vote that is so cherished for a legislator in a district that might not always match up so well with their beliefs. I'd classify the 42nd as somewhere between moderate Republican and totally swing, but Ericksen has locked it up pretty well. Not to be confused with Priest in temperament, Ericksen is an unabashed partisan who I expect to be caucus leader down the road. His opponent this election is Mark Flanders, who Ericksen defeated by just shy of 20 points in the primary. After winning reelection in 2006 by ten points, he should be in for an easier ride.

Ericksen [R] 59
Flanders [D] 41

10. 5th District #1
Unlike seatmate Glenn Anderson, Jay Rodne had no such scare on primary night from his little-known Democratic opponent, tradesman Jon Viebrock. I expect this to be the strongest finish of 5th district Republicans because of Rodne's moderate perception amongst voters.

Rodne [R] 60
Viebrock [D] 40

Update: I made a fairly major oversight when posting this not to include the open 25th district seat being vacated by Joyce McDonald. It should have been ranked 3rd on the list, with Republican candidate Bruce Dammeier defeating Democrat Rob Cerqui 51-49. Dammeier won the primary with slightly over 50% and has been one of the best fundraisers for legislative candidates this cycle, and that's why I give him the edge.

Senate elections predictions, part 2

Several days ago I posted the top five potential Democratic pickups, and this involves the Republican targets. I'm predicting no change in partisan seat distribution this cycle.

Republican Targets:
1. 2nd District:
Senator Marilyn Rasmussen is a holdover from the days Democrats dominated rural Pierce County, a socially-conservative Democrat constantly surviving in what is now fairly solid GOP territory. She won reelection in 2004 by about five points and took just over 50% in this year's primary election. Her opponent is Randi Becker, who ran far ahead of more moderate GOPer Kelly Mainard for the #2 spot in the general. With Rasmussen right at 50% against two Republicans it's quite apparent she's vulnerable yet again, but ultimately I think she's cast enough high-profile conservative votes to win with some crossover Republican support.

Rasmussen [D] 51%
Becker [R] 49%

2. 10th District:
The 10th is a similar situation to the 2nd in that the incumbent is an aging institution who is increasingly in the wrong party for the district yet continues to win narrow reelections. Mary Margaret Haugen is one of the more powerful senators in the body, chair of the transportation committee, and has a moderate record that is ideal for a Democrat in the 10th. She's been in the legislature for 25 years, though won reelection in 2004 by only three points. She earned 53% of the vote in the primary against Republican businesswoman Linda Haddon and third party candidate Sarah Hart, seemingly placing her on more solid footing than her 2nd district counterpart. The 10th has had Republican representatives in both seats since 2000, though many of those races have been narrow victories.

Haugen [D] 53%
Haddon [R] 47%

3. 25th District:
The 25th features incumbent Senator Jim Kastama against GOP challenger Michele Smith. Kastama solidified his hold on the seat with a nine point reelection in 2004 and won the primary with 56% of the vote. Like the previous two seats he typically votes a more moderate line that fits this swing district well. Democrats have fared better here the last several cycles but it is likely to continue to be a bellweather district, and right now that means Kastama is in a good position. Smith has been around the district a long time and has yet to score her first victory, and isn't terribly likely to do it here.

Kastama [D] 55%
Smith [R] 45%

4. 5th District:
The last remaining Republican bastion on the Eastside, Senator Cheryl Pflug faces reelection against Democrat Phyllis Huster, a lesbian. Pflug cast a very public vote against her caucus in the domestic partnership extension bill last biennium, a move some speculate was meant to neutralize the charge from Huster that she is not gay-friendly enough. I respect Pflug for the vote, but I don't really buy the aforementioned theory. The 5th is Rossi country and I don't think she would have had much to worry about regardless of how she voted on the issue. Democrats might be able to finally break through in the district, but it isn't going to be against Pflug.

Pflug [R] 59%
Huster [D] 41%

5. 1st District:
The 1st district has been fairly solid Democratic for most of its history. This is the district that got the ball rolling on Patty Murray's career back in the 80s (thanks a lot for that, 1st), and isn't likely to revert to Republicans at the current time. Republicans tend to do well in parts of the district at the local level, but in partisan races 1st district voters are much more likely to shy away from the label. McAuliffe has been in the seat since her first election in 1992, typically drawing victories by around ten points. She won the primary over opponent Dennis Richter by a surprisingly close 57-43%, I say "surprisingly" because she won reelection by about the same margin in 2004 against a more mainstream Republican. Richter doesn't seem to have much of a base of support and is way too conservative for the district.

McAuliffe [D] 60%
Richter [R] 40%

Senate elections predictions, part 1

This post regards this cycle's Senate races, including the top 5 potential pick-up opportunities for each caucus. First off, I'm not predicting any change in the partisan seat distribution this cycle. Each side has a couple seats that could feasibly change, but I don't think any of them are especially likely. Democrats already have a 32-17 seat advantage and have few pick-up opportunities, and Republicans have a few chances to close the gap but are still at a disadvantage.

Democratic Targets
1. 28th District:
Democratic challenger Debi Srail is challenging incumbent Senator Mike Carrell in this suburban Pierce County district. Traditionally the district has been a GOP leaner, dominated for many years by liberal Republican Senator Shirley Winsley. Carrell has served the district in the legislature since 1994, first in the House and then joining the Senate by appointment following Winsley's retirement in 2004. Since that appointment, Democrats have picked up both of the district's House seats. Srail has ran twice for House seats and lost both times, but came close in the primary election where Carrell won 51.6%-48.4%. I'm predicting a similar result in the general election, where turnout will be higher but ultimately I don't see anything that suggests a flip in the results. This is a swing district, after all, and I don't think having Obama at the top of the ticket will make as big a difference as it would on the Eastside.

Carrell [R] 52%
Srail [D] 48%

2. District 18:
For all the seats Democrats have picked off in formerly-GOP suburbia, they have thus far been largely unable to break through in southwestern districts like the 17th and 18th. Senator Joe Zarelli, a lock-step conservative in a conservative district, is seeking his fourth full term. His challenger is Jon Haugen, a career military man. Zarelli won the primary 55%-45%, slightly ahead of his 54% victory for reelection in 2004 against Dave Seabrook. My assessment of this race is that Zarelli may be a little polarizing and that may continue to cause some swing voters to go Democratic for Senate while voting for Jaime Herrera and Ed Orcutt down-ballot, but should continue to win by mid to high single-digits.

Zarelli [R] 53%
Haugen [D] 47%

3. District 17:
Another southwestern seat with an endangered GOP incumbent. The 17th is more Democrat-friendly than the 18th but incumbent Senator Don Benton seems to have a firmer grasp on his seat than Zarelli in the neighbouring 18th. He was reelected in 2004 by twelve points and won his primary against college professor David Carrier by nine points. Carrier will keep it close but I have a hard time seeing Benton go down after he scared off bigger names in the early-going.

Benton [R] 54%
Carrier [D] 46%

4. District 39:
In the interest of full disclosure, for anybody who hasn't read this weblog in the past, I will readily admit to my intense dislike for Val Stevens. There is nothing I would like more than to see her hateful, fundamentalist rhetoric soundly denounced by voters in her staunchly-conservative district. I'm fully prepared to be disappointed yet again, as her Democratic opponent has way too much baggage to have a shot. Fred Walser suffers from several transgressions as police chief for the city of Sultan and has plead guilty to a misdemeanor offense for providing false information while in office. Making no moral judgment on these problems, I'm quite certain it makes it close to impossible to win. Indeed, Stevens took nearly 60% of the vote in the primary election compared to mid-50s in her three previous general election showings.

Stevens [R] 58%
Walser [D] 42%

5. District 40:
The open 40th presents an opportunity for Republicans that they normally wouldn't have, being able to target what is normally a solidly-Democratic seat. Unfortunately for them, this is a pretty rotten year to try to convince a group of Democratic-leaning voters to crossover to even a good Republican candidate. They're running former Rep. Steve Van Luven while San Juan County Councilman Kevin Ranker emerged from the crowded Democratic field to make the runoff. Van Luven "won" the primary, taking 38% of the vote, but when you consider that he was running against five Democrats and an also-ran, it's quite apparent he has a long way to go. Especially against Ranker, arguably the most likable of the possible Democratic candidates. Ranker has the support of the major newspapers in the district and there's no reason to think this will turn out close even with the calibre of Van Luven.

Ranker [D] 59%
Van Luven [R] 41%

Next up are the five best Republican targets.

Statewide election predictions, part 1

Apologies for not updating the spreadsheet yet, it's updated but my FTP program is causing me problems. I decided that I might as well just get its contents public through blog entries and that would also allow me to provide the thought process behind them at the same time.

This lists the easy predictions for our statewide offices, the ones that aren't likely to change shape from here until election day. If there's a huge scandal that changes that perception I suppose I'll update it in the post involving our more marquee races.

Lieutenant Governor:
The easy call is Brad Owen, the incumbent running for his fourth term. Owen took 52% in a four-way primary, I suspect he'll pick up another few points to win with his usual mid-50s percentage. Opposing Owen is Republican Marcia McCraw, an attorney who I'd like to see a lot more of in the future. McCraw is my type of Republican, a pro-choice moderate from Seattle, the sort I've been harping on the party to run more of at the legislative level. I'm not sure lieutenant governor is the right office for McCraw, though, and I'd like to see her take a shot at a county council or legislative seat in the future. I understand that it would be a losing venture in Democratic Seattle, but I'm of the opinion that the more the GOP runs candidates like McCraw and Leslie Bloss the further they'll go towards rebuilding their support and earning a better shot at winning in the area down the road. If not this route, Rob McKenna should offer McCraw a job in the AG office and get her experience to run for the position when he inevitably seeks higher office.

All this said, Owen has the pedigree for the job. He too is moderate, independent-minded, and bipartisan. He's been in the legislature and LG's office forever and is well-versed in parliamentary procedure. I voted for Owen based on the job, but I cannot stress enough what a fan I've become of McCraw in the process.

Owen [D] 55
McCraw [R] 45

Secretary of State:
Sam Reed took nearly 60% of the vote in the primary, winning every county. There's no reason to think the runoff will be anything but another landslide, though it might not result in a clean sweep. The only thing that seems to have changed is that The Stranger pussed out and switched their support to challenger Jason Osgood, which might have changed the minds of some of their lockstep readership, but certainly not enough to cause Reed to break a sweat.

Reed [R] 59%
Osgood [D] 41%

Auditor:
Incumbent Brian Sonntag dropped a bit from his 2004 reelection campaign, namely because he's no longer running against Will Baker. He still earned almost 60% and is running against an opponent he beat by 20 points in 2000. This should mirror the secretary of state race in that virtually all the state's independent voters will swing uniformly and leave only the ~40% base on the losing end.

Sonntag [D] 61%
McEntee [R] 39%

Look for the remainder of the statewide races next week. I intend on doing Senate races later this week and House races someplace in-between.