The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

20 October 2008

Statewide election predictions, part 1

Apologies for not updating the spreadsheet yet, it's updated but my FTP program is causing me problems. I decided that I might as well just get its contents public through blog entries and that would also allow me to provide the thought process behind them at the same time.

This lists the easy predictions for our statewide offices, the ones that aren't likely to change shape from here until election day. If there's a huge scandal that changes that perception I suppose I'll update it in the post involving our more marquee races.

Lieutenant Governor:
The easy call is Brad Owen, the incumbent running for his fourth term. Owen took 52% in a four-way primary, I suspect he'll pick up another few points to win with his usual mid-50s percentage. Opposing Owen is Republican Marcia McCraw, an attorney who I'd like to see a lot more of in the future. McCraw is my type of Republican, a pro-choice moderate from Seattle, the sort I've been harping on the party to run more of at the legislative level. I'm not sure lieutenant governor is the right office for McCraw, though, and I'd like to see her take a shot at a county council or legislative seat in the future. I understand that it would be a losing venture in Democratic Seattle, but I'm of the opinion that the more the GOP runs candidates like McCraw and Leslie Bloss the further they'll go towards rebuilding their support and earning a better shot at winning in the area down the road. If not this route, Rob McKenna should offer McCraw a job in the AG office and get her experience to run for the position when he inevitably seeks higher office.

All this said, Owen has the pedigree for the job. He too is moderate, independent-minded, and bipartisan. He's been in the legislature and LG's office forever and is well-versed in parliamentary procedure. I voted for Owen based on the job, but I cannot stress enough what a fan I've become of McCraw in the process.

Owen [D] 55
McCraw [R] 45

Secretary of State:
Sam Reed took nearly 60% of the vote in the primary, winning every county. There's no reason to think the runoff will be anything but another landslide, though it might not result in a clean sweep. The only thing that seems to have changed is that The Stranger pussed out and switched their support to challenger Jason Osgood, which might have changed the minds of some of their lockstep readership, but certainly not enough to cause Reed to break a sweat.

Reed [R] 59%
Osgood [D] 41%

Incumbent Brian Sonntag dropped a bit from his 2004 reelection campaign, namely because he's no longer running against Will Baker. He still earned almost 60% and is running against an opponent he beat by 20 points in 2000. This should mirror the secretary of state race in that virtually all the state's independent voters will swing uniformly and leave only the ~40% base on the losing end.

Sonntag [D] 61%
McEntee [R] 39%

Look for the remainder of the statewide races next week. I intend on doing Senate races later this week and House races someplace in-between.



At 4:35 PM, Anonymous jacob said...

Glad to see you are back! I hope you might be a little daring this year in your picks for Governor/Lands Commissioner...Go Dino and Goldmark!


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