The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

19 August 2008

Primary recap

Not all the runoff pictures are set in stone yet, but from what we know now I'm quite satisfied with my predictions. For statewide races I called them all pretty close, with the only real disappointment being Chang Mook Sohn's poor result in the treasurer's race. As of this posting, Doug Sutherland narrowly leads the lands commissioner race 51-49, not far off of the 52-48 call I made going in favour of opponent Peter Goldmark. Other surprises of the night include the apparent dominance of Sam Reed, Rob McKenna, and Terry Bergeson, all currently winning by greater than expected margins. Especially in the case of Reed, whose surprising 54-40 win in King County is easily the best for a Republican there in several cycles.

On the legislative front, there were a few hiccups. First, my John Waite gamble didn't pay off, though it is a pretty tight race between him and the two Republicans for the 3rd district House seat held by Alex Wood. Diana Wilhite really underperformed in the 4th, which has been the biggest surprise of the night for me. As the mayor of Spokane Valley, I would have expected a much stronger result than 20%. I knew Matt Shea was a strong candidate, but apparently underestimated the name recognition factor in that race.

In the 8th House district Carol Moser easily won as the only Democrat, but it remains to be seen who her GOP challenger will be. At the moment the leader for that spot is Brad Klippert, an extreme conservative who makes Val Stevens look cuddly and reasonable, with moderately-conservative businessman Skip Novakovich a little under 300 votes behind. The other tight race out east is the 7th district, where Sue Lani Madsen currently leads Shelley Short by about 50 votes.

On the west side, John Burbank seems to have won the first round in the race to replace Helen Sommers, though I still think Reuven Carlyle is the man to beat in that match. Scott White ran rather easily ahead of Gerry Pollet for all of the drama surrounding that race. In the 28th district Senate race, which was a foregone conclusion as it only has two candidates, is amusingly tight as incumbent Mike Carrell is now tied with Debi Srail with 5,790 votes. The open 25th seat was assumed to advance Democrat Rob Cerqui with GOP moneymaker Bruce Dammeier, which is the case but it remains to be seen which candidate will have bragging rights going into the runoff. Cerqui has held a small lead most of the night but at the current time is a mere 25 votes.


18 August 2008

Primary predictions: legislative

Here are my predictions for several hand-picked races from across the state that are being effected by the new primary system. These are mostly open seats with lots of candidates, but there are some exceptions. While I've not spent a lot of time examining our federal races aside from looking at polls as they come out, I'm including a brief write-up about the Reichert-Burner race at the bottom just because it's probably the second most important race in the state this cycle.

11th Senate District:
Margarita Prentice [D] 65%
Juan Martinez [D] 27%

20th Senate District:
Dan Swecker [R] 45%
Chuck Bojarski [D] 35%

40th Senate District:
Steve Van Luven [R] 30%
Kevin Ranker [D] 24%
Ranker should come out as the highest Democrat due to his organizational edge, though Ken Henderson will keep it close. Van Luven should win as the only Republican.

3rd House District #1:
Alex Wood [D] 55%
John Waite [I] 19%
-supporting Waite
I like Waite a lot, and think he might be able to overcome his lack of partisan help for a place in the runoff. He's a moderate in a liberal district and against two Republicans could end up beating them out for a place in the runoff. His endorsement by the Spokesman Review should help out quite a bit.

4th House District #2:
Diana Wilhite [R] 32%
Tim Hattenburg [D] 29%

6th House District #1:
Don Barlow [D] 47%
Kevin Parker [R] 31%

7th House District #1:
Shelly Short [R] 38%
Sue Lani Madsen [R] 33%

8th House District #1:
Carol Moser [D] 35%
Rick Jansons [R] 28%

14th House District #1:
Vickie Ybarra [D] 33%
Norm Johnson [R] 30%

17th House District #1:
Tim Probst [D] 45%
Joseph James [R] 31%

35th House District #2:
Fred Finn [D] 34%
Randy Neatherlin [R] 26%

36th House District #1:
Reuven Carlyle [D] 44%
John Burbank [D] 35%
-supporting Carlyle, Leslie Bloss [R]

8th Congressional District:
Dave Reichert [R] 51%
Darcy Burner [D] 44%
Burner will almost assuredly come in second in the primary due to the other two Democratic candidates in the race but ultimately I doubt either will lose much to the also-rans. I'll probably catch some hell about this from all the Burner cheerleaders, but I'm keeping my Reichert prediction from last cycle and barring some major event between now and November will also be predicting him in the runoff. He's led in every nonpartisan poll I've seen of the race and while he's always hovering around 50% I expect his personal vote to come out in enough force to allow him another slight victory. We all know the 8th district likes to ticket-split and I don't see any signs this vocal minority is going to succumb to straight-ticket voting this year even with Barack Obama dominating the district. Burner's money and grassroots support are strong but as a second-try candidate has a lot to overcome. Dino Rossi will be in a similar situation and while I'd love to think otherwise he will also probably lose a close race.


17 August 2008

Primary predictions: statewide

With only two days left until our first top two primary (suck it, Pelz), I thought it might be worthwhile to come back to the weblog and post some primary predictions. Today will be statewide contests and tomorrow will be legislative contests should I have the opportunity to post. Given the nature of the primary I will be listing which two candidates I think will advance along with their percentage of the vote. I also made note in some races for which candidate I voted for. For races I don't feel particularly solid for either candidate I did not make such a note.

Chris Gregoire [D] 48%
Dino Rossi [R] 45%
-supporting Rossi

Lt Governor:
Brad Owen [D] 55%
Marcia McCraw [R] 29%
-supporting Owen

Secretary of State:
Sam Reed [R] 53%
Jason Osgood [D] 43%
-supporting Reed

Allan Martin [R] 38%
Jim McIntire [D] 33%
-supporting Chang Mook Sohn [D]

Brian Sonntag [D] 59%
Dick McEntee [R] 36%
-supporting Sonntag

Attorney General:
Rob McKenna [R] 54%
John Ladenburg [D] 46%
-supporting McKenna

Lands Commissioner:
Peter Goldmark [D] 52%
Doug Sutherland [R] 48%

Terry Bergeson 38%
Randy Dorn 32%
-supporting Bergeson

Insurance Commissioner:
Mike Kreidler [D] 54%
John Adams [R] 39%

Supreme Court #3:
Mary Fairhurst 57%
Michael Bond 43%

Supreme Court #4:
Charles Johnson 62%
James Beecher 23%
-supporting Johnson