The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

19 August 2005

Useless 2006 Senate poll

A big thank you to Rasmussen Reports for showing us Maria Cantwell has a "solid lead" over...people who aren't running against her in the first place. Rasmussen shows Cantwell easily defeating state GOP chair Chris Vance and former Rep. Rick White, completely oblivious to the fact that neither will run against her in 2006. White is tentatively supporting Mike McGavick, and Vance dropped out when McGavick entered. So, why put out a poll showing Cantwell doing so well against people who aren't running against her? For the same reason they, keeping with what they've shown in the past, show Chris Gregoire with majority popular support...trying to show something positive for two figures whose next elections will be difficult. Gregoire might have 51% popularity in urban Seattle, and even that's a big maybe. Look to any other pollster and she's in the low 40s, tops, and most show her in the mid-to-high 30s. Rasmussen needs to get in the ballgame and 1) release some polls that are meaningful in the first place, and 2) expand their sample to more accurately present the state electorate, given that the Senate race is statewide. No way in hell does Cantwell win by 20 points. No way.

Combine Strategic Vision's GOP-biased poll showing Cantwell winning 46-38 over McGavick and Rasmussen's Democrat-wet-dream trouncing of Vance/White, one must deduce Cantwell probably leads McGavick/GOP candidate by roughly 50-35 at the moment, give or take. McGavick's background, social positions, and, of course, money, will more than likely make this race within 4 points either way.


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