Olde tyme legislator to run for OSPI

According to the News Tribune, former state Rep. Randy Dorn will soon be announcing a run for superintendent of public instruction. He was formerly a high school principal and currently heads the Public School Employees of Washington, the second largest teachers' union in the state.

Dorn served the 2nd legislative district from his 1987 appointment to his 1994 loss to Republican Scott Smith. Since the 1994 GOP landslide, only Marilyn Rasmussen has been able to keep a Democratic foothold in the rural Pierce County district.

Majority supports nonpartisan offices in King County

A poll by SurveyUSA shows 53% of King County residents support a proposition pushed by Pete von Reichbauer to make most of the county's offices nonpartisan. Specifically, it would make the executive, assessor, and county council offices nonpartisan, potentially making it easier for Republican candidates. That isn't the tune being whistled by von Reichbauer and the proposition's supporters, but I think it's fairly clear what the motivation behind it is. Anyway, crosstabs are located here.

40th District: Today's news

Two new candidates joined the race to replace Senator Spanel in the 40th legislative district today, as the race seems to change on an almost daily basis. One is Paul Gonzales, a veteran of the Washington State Patrol and former member of the Mount Vernon City Council, and the other is Stephanie Kountouros, a coordinator of the Whatcom For Obama campaign. They join these candidates already in the race:

Hue Beattie [D], Democratic state committeeman for Whatcom County
Ken Henderson [D], former Whatcom County Councilman
Kevin Ranker [D], San Juan County Councilman
Steve Van Luven [R], former state representative

While the 40th is solidly Democratic, the large number of Democrats in the race should mean that Van Luven can expect a spot in the runoff.

Lonergan runs with GOP

According to PolitickerWA, Tacoma city councillor Mike Lonergan will no longer run for Pierce County executive as an Independent and will instead return to his true party, the GOP. Lonergan had been a candidate with the GOP in the past for Congress but had previously attempted to shed the connection considering his position in safely-Democratic Tacoma.

This means both parties have two strong contenders for the seat, as Lonergan joins Pierce County councillor Shawn Bunney on the Republican side with Pierce County auditor Pat McCarthy and county councillor Calvin Goings on the Democratic side. Reading Lonergan's press release it seems like he's going to attempt to be the right-wing candidate in the race, claiming he follows the party platform 100% of the time. This is probably to contrast himself with the more pragmatic Bunney, but it will likely result in ceding Tacoma to McCarthy. That specifically is what I don't understand about this change, as at least while he ran Independent he could have probably contested Tacoma given his name recognition from city office. I just don't see him taking the suburbs when that's home field for both Bunney and Goings.

Spreadsheet Update

A new predictions spreadsheet is now available for download, with up to date candidate entries and some changes in predictions. I rearranged the target lists for both parties based on recent candidate entries and in one case changed the predicted outcome. I'm now predicting a Republican retention in the 25th district seat being vacated by Joyce McDonald due to Democratic troubles finding a candidate and the fundraising success of GOP candidate Bruce Dammeier.

I intend to offer updated write-ups on the target lists in the near future.