Election predictions: City of Seattle

Mayor: It's a foregone conclusion that incumbent Greg Nickels will be reelected, but it will be interesting to see if dissatisfaction with him will result in a closer than expected result. Political newcomer Al Runte would turn in an impressive showing if he could break 40%.

Greg Nickels 63% - supported
Al Runte 37%

Council Pos. 2: This will probably wind up the best matchup of all council races. Incumbent Richard Conlin faces a strong challenge from longtime Port Commissioner Paige Miller, and while Conlin is favoured in most polls, the margin is slim and there are plenty of undecides to go around.

Richard Conlin 53% - supported
Paige Miller 47%

Council Pos. 4: I had long thought this was an upset in the making, but it seems that most negative feelings about the Nickels administration have rubbed off on former aide Casey Corr, because he's actually in a tough race. Corr is definitely the more independent and mainstream choice here of two Democrats, but I don't see him taking down the incumbent.

Jan Drago 56%
Casey Corr 44% - supported

Council Pos. 6: The opposite of the second seat race, this one has received next to no coverage because nobody expects challenger Paul Bascomb to come remotely close to liberal incumbent Nick Licata. Licata, once wooed for a challenge to Mayor Nickels, ought to have few problems winning another term. While Licata's economic positions are often at-odds with mine, I do respect him as a strong social libertarian.

Nick Licata 67% - supported
Paul Bascomb 33%

Council Pos. 8: I had initially put my money on Dwight Pelz in this race, when he first skipped here from the second position primary. His long history of success at different levels of government far outweighed relative newcomer Richard McIver, but polls have shown McIver retaining a strong lead against Pelz. Perhaps if Rob Rosencrantz had made the general election he could have given some stronger opposition from having a fairly significant difference in ideology from both McIver and Pelz, but instead we're stuck with a choice of the far-left Pelz and the left-on-everything-but-personal-freedom McIver. While McIver's authoritarian vote on the strip club ban irked me, he still holds a slight edge in sanity over the outgoing county Councilman Pelz.

Richard McIver 54% - supported
Dwight Pelz 46%