The Moderate Washingtonian

Outlook on politics and elections in the state of Washington from an overall centrist viewpoint. My views tend to be libertarian in nature, but at the same time are largely nonpartisan.

05 November 2005

Election predictions: Potpourri

In saving King County predictions until the last minute (hoping for another batch of polls), these are a grab bag of everything else I care to mention.

Spokane City Council Dist. 1: Al French will assuredly be reelected easily over novice challenger Valentina Howard. This should be the most lopsided of the three council races.

Al French 68% - supported
Valentina Howard 32%

Spokane City Council Dist. 2: Appointed incumbent Mary Verner has mounted a solid campaign in her first run for office. She enjoys the support of most moderates and liberals, leaving the district's few conservatives in opponent Dallas Hawkins' camp. Taking 60% in a three-way primary ought to cast light on this one's outcome.

Mary Verner 62% - supported
Dallas Hawkins 38%

Spokane City Council Dist. 3: This race is really hard to call. It weighs former Councilman Steve Corker's polarizing personality against Nancy McLaughlin and her mismatched ideology for this moderately-liberal district. McLaughlin won the crowded primary, but hardly proved she has broad enough support to easily win the general. If Corker can pick up the bulk of Judith Gilmore voters, which he should, he'll probably squeak by. This is my most uncomfortable prediction for any race this year, it can really go either way.

Steve Corker 52% - supported
Nancy McLaughlin 48%

Snohomish County Council Dist. 5: This is another race that's tough to call. Much like the Spokane mayor's office, residents have had a habit of not reelecting anybody for the past 20 years. Perhaps if Steve Hobbs had won the Democratic line i'd consider an upset of incumbent Jeff Sax, but since ex-Councilman Dave Somers is the Democratic nominee, I tend to think Sax will be reelected. Somers is yesterday's news and basically offers a choice of the current split government and throwing the entire county back to complete Democratic control.

Jeff Sax 53% - supported
Dave Somers 47%

Tacoma Mayor: I haven't talked much about this race because it's even more pointless than the Seattle mayor's race. At least Al Runte is a sane person, but incumbent Mayor Bill Baarsma couldn't even draw a challenger with all their wits. Baarsma should face similar results as when then-Mayor Brian Ebersole rocked professional nutcase Will Baker back in 1999. Perhaps Baarsma will be able to top Ebersole's 78%, even.

Bill Baarsma 75% - supported
Will Baker 25%

Seattle Port Commission Pos. 1: Normally i'd have said liberal incumbent Lawrence Molloy would be favoured, but I was quite surprised at the dominance of moderate challenger John Creighton in the primary and think he has broad enough support to win the seat.

John Creighton 55% - supported
Lawrence Molloy 45%

Seattle Port Commission Pos. 3: In what could be the closest Port race of the year, the open seat vacated by Paige Miller pits former city Treasurer Lloyd Hara versus Rich Berkowitz. Both are moderate-liberals and both would be an improvement over Miller, so vote your conscience. I give the edge to Hara based on name recognition, but it's a tough call.

Lloyd Hara 52% - supported
Rich Berkowitz 48% - supported

Seattle Port Commission Pos. 4: Senior Commissioner Pat Davis faces a decent challenge from Jack Jolley, but should be reelected. She won the primary with Jolley barely making the general, and despite being more moderate than Jolley, should win fairly decisively.

Pat Davis 57% - supported
Jack Jolley 43%


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